The AI Policy Pendulum Swings: Trump's Return and the Reshaping of America's AI Landscape

The AI Policy Pendulum Swings: Trump's Return and the Reshaping of America's AI Landscape

by Bálint Medgyes

As the dust settles on the 2024 presidential election, the tech world braces for a seismic shift in U.S. artificial intelligence policy. Donald Trump's return to the White House signals a dramatic change in the government's approach to AI regulation and development, coming at a pivotal moment when AI technologies are rapidly advancing and reshaping our society and economy.

The Great Repeal: Dismantling Biden's AI Framework

At the heart of the expected policy overhaul is the anticipated repeal of President Biden's Executive Order on AI (EO 14110[1]), issued in October 2023. This comprehensive order laid out a framework for federal agencies' engagement with AI technologies, covering everything from safety standards to privacy protections and measures addressing algorithmic discrimination. The 2024 Republican party platform didn't mince words, labeling Biden's order as "dangerous" and asserting that it "hinders AI Innovation and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the technology's development".[2] In its place, the platform promised to champion "AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing". This repeal sets the stage for a fundamental reimagining of the U.S. government's role in AI governance. While the exact contours of Trump's AI policy remain to be fully articulated, several key themes are emerging.

Trump's administration is poised to adopt a more hands-off approach to AI regulation, echoing the stance of his previous term.[3] This philosophy emphasizes reducing barriers to AI development and promoting innovation above all else. Adam Thierer, a senior fellow at R Street Institute, suggests that "agencies will be instructed to take a slightly more hands-off approach to AI regulation and also consider alternative approaches besides regulation".[4] This deregulatory push is likely to be welcomed by many in the tech industry who have long argued that heavy-handed regulation stifles innovation. However, it also raises concerns about potential risks and unintended consequences of rapid, unchecked AI development.

National Security and the AI Arms Race

Despite the expected rollback of many Biden-era policies, national security is likely to remain a cornerstone of Trump's AI strategy. The administration is expected to double down on the use of AI in defense and intelligence contexts, potentially expanding upon some of the national security-related recommendations from Biden's order. A significant driver of this focus is the ongoing technological rivalry with China. Trump's AI policy is likely to be shaped by a determination to ensure American dominance in AI development and prevent China from benefiting from U.S. advancements. This could manifest in more protectionist measures and increased investment in domestic AI research and development.

The fate of initiatives like the AI Safety Institute at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the National AI Research Resource (NAIRR) pilot hangs in the balance. While these programs have garnered bipartisan support[5], their continuation may depend on how closely they are tied to Biden's executive order and whether Congress acts to codify them. This uncertainty underscores a broader question: how will the new administration balance its deregulatory instincts with the need for some level of oversight and coordination in AI development?

The Role of Elon Musk

Elon Musk's potential involvement in Trump's AI policy adds an intriguing layer of complexity to this discussion. In March 2023, Musk was a signatory to an open letter calling for a pause in advanced AI development, citing concerns about potential risks to society.[6]. This cautionary stance seems at odds with the deregulatory approach expected from the Trump administration. Yet, there are now calls for Musk to take a leading role in shaping US AI policy under Trump, with the Americans for Responsible Innovation urging his appointment as a special advisor on AI. This apparent contradiction highlights the complex balancing act between innovation and regulation in the AI field. Musk's potential involvement could be seen as an attempt to influence policy from within, tempering extreme deregulatory impulses while promoting American competitiveness in AI. However, it also raises questions about how his business interests, particularly with xAI and Tesla, might influence his policy recommendations.

Rewriting the Rules: Federal AI Use Guidelines

The Trump administration is expected to revisit and likely revise the Office of Management and Budget's guidance on federal AI use. The current guidance, which emphasizes risk management and equity considerations, may be streamlined, or refocused to prioritize efficiency and innovation over regulatory caution. This shift could have far-reaching implications for how AI is deployed across federal agencies, potentially accelerating adoption but also raising questions about accountability and fairness.

Despite the expected policy upheaval, some aspects of AI governance may see continuity. Cybersecurity measures related to AI are likely to remain largely intact, given their critical importance to national security. Efforts to leverage AI for improving government services and reducing costs may also continue, albeit with potentially different emphases. The recently released national security memorandum on AI[7], which focuses on the intelligence community and Defense Department, may also survive largely unscathed due to its bipartisan nature and alignment with Trump's national security priorities. 

For the AI industry, this policy shift promises both opportunities and challenges. The reduced regulatory burden may accelerate innovation and deployment of new technologies, potentially unleashing a new wave of AI-driven products and services. However, the changed landscape also brings uncertainties. Reporting requirements for companies developing powerful AI systems may be eliminated or significantly altered, potentially reducing transparency. Federal funding priorities for AI research may shift, favoring areas aligned with national security and economic competitiveness, possibly at the expense of research into AI ethics and fairness. The focus on competition with China could also impact international collaborations in AI research and development, potentially leading to a more siloed approach to AI advancement. This could have long-term implications for the global AI ecosystem and America's position within it.

The Road Ahead: Balancing Innovation and Responsibility

As we look to the future, the shift in U.S. AI policy under Trump raises important questions about the balance between innovation and responsible AI governance. While a deregulatory approach may spur rapid advancements, it also brings concerns about AI safety, algorithmic bias, and the long-term impacts of AI on society. The coming years will be crucial in determining how the United States positions itself in the global AI race while addressing the complex challenges posed by this transformative technology. As stakeholders across industry, academia, and civil society grapple with these changes, one thing is clear: the AI policy pendulum is swinging, and its arc will shape the future of technology for years to come. In this new era of AI governance, vigilance, and engagement from all sectors of society will be essential to ensure that the promise of AI is realized responsibly, ethically, and in service of the greater good. The story of AI in America is far from over – indeed, a new chapter is just beginning

 

 

[1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/

[2] https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2024/11/trump-promised-repeal-bidens-ai-executive-order-heres-what-expect-next/400934/

[3] https://fedscoop.com/trump-likely-to-scale-back-ai-policy-with-biden-order-repeal/

[4] https://www.rstreet.org/commentary/trumps-surprising-ai-agenda-what-to-expect-next/

[5] https://fedscoop.com/legislation-to-codify-nairr-authorize-safety-body-among-nine-ai-bills-passed-by-house-panel/

[6] https://time.com/6266679/musk-ai-open-letter/

[7] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/10/24/memorandum-on-advancing-the-united-states-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence-harnessing-artificial-intelligence-to-fulfill-national-security-objectives-and-fostering-the-safety-security/